Primary finding
Probable cause
The noninstrument-rated pilot’s continued flight into an area of known rain with reduced visibility and his failure to maintain airplane control while maneuvering the airplane after entering these conditions.
Investigator assessment
Analysis narrative
Before departing for the flight, the noninstrument-rated pilot received weather briefings, which indicated that visual flight rules (VFR) conditions prevailed along the route of flight with no significant flight restrictions. While en route to the destination, the pilot requested and received VFR flight following services from air traffic control. The approach controller advised the pilot of moderate to heavy rain ahead along the route of flight, and the pilot replied, "vfr." About 6 minutes later, the controller again told the pilot about heavy precipitation along the route of flight and then gave the pilot a heading to deviate around the weather. The pilot confirmed the heading. Radar data indicated that the airplane started the expected right turn shortly later and then descended at a high rate of speed. The controller queried the pilot with no response, and no further transmissions from the accident pilot were received. The wreckage was located the next day based on the emergency locator transmitter. All major components of the airplane were accounted for at the accident site. No airframe or engine preimpact anomalies were detected that would have precluded normal operation. A band of light-to-moderate intensity echoes about 15 miles wide existed along the flight track, and echoes of light intensity were over the accident site. Reflectivity images did not identify any strong convective echoes along the airplane's flightpath. The pilot likely flew into an area of known rain with reduced visibility, which resulted in his subsequent loss of airplane control.
Source record
Factual narrative
The Medical Examiner Office at the Arkansas State Crime Laboratory performed an autopsy on the pilot on October 24, 2013. The cause of death was listed as blunt force injury. The FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute prepared a Final Forensic Toxicology Accident Report on specimens from the pilot's autopsy. The report was negative for the tests performed. A National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) senior meteorologist reviewed weather documents to include flight service station briefings given to the pilot representing N888TP. Those briefings indicated the pilot should expect VFR conditions to prevail along the route of flight with no significant flight restrictions. The meteorologists review revealed that National Weather Service (NWS) surfact analysis for 1300 depicted a cold front over the planned route of flight and immediately east of the accident site. The chart depicted overcast clouds with light continuous rain behind the front. The NWS National radar mosaic for 1400 depicted a band of weather echoes from southern Missouri southwestward across northern Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma. The band of echoes was along the route of flight and over the accident site. The closest weather reporting location, about 21 miles and 289 degrees from the accident site, at the Drake Field Airport (FYV), near Fayetteville, AR, reported a wind shift associated with the cold front passage with marginal VFR (MVFR) to temporary instrument flight rules (IFR) conditions in light to moderate rain behind the front. At 1353, the recorded weather at FYV was: wind calm; visibility 5 statute miles; present weather rain, mist; sky condition scattered clouds 800 feet, broken clouds 1,800 feet, overcast clouds 5,000 feet; temperature 10 degrees C; dew point 9 degrees C; altimeter 30.08 inches of mercury. The next closest reporting stations at the Springdale Municipal Airport, near Springdale, and the Boone County Airport, in Harrison, Arkansas, both reported VFR conditions with broken to overcast sky conditions with surrounding light rain. The North American Mesoscale model sounding for 1300 over the accident site indicated a potential cloud base at 1,000 feet above ground level. The sounding was stable and supported nimbostratus type clouds capable of producing rain showers. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) no. 13 infrared satellite imagery at 1402 depicted an extensive band of low to mid-level clouds over the region associated with the frontal system. The GOES-13 visible image for 1402 also depicted an overcast cloud cover over the accident site with nimbostratus type clouds. The satellite and radar imagery, and lightning data did not identify any cumulonimbus clouds or thunderstorms in the immediate vicinity of the accident site. The NWS Weather Surveillance Radar 0.5 degree base reflectivity images for 1401 and 1407 depicted a band of light to moderate intensity echoes approximately 15 miles wide along the flight track. Over the accident site, the echo intensity was only 20 to 25 dBZ or light intensity echoes. The reflectivity images did not identify any strong convective echoes along the flight path of the accident airplane. A review the lightning network indicated that there were no in-cloud or cloud-to-ground lightning activity in an approximate 20 mile radius and a 45 minute period surrounding the time of the accident. The NWS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for FYV available at the time of preflight planning expected VFR conditions prevailing with a broken ceiling at 4,000 feet and light rain showers. The TAF for Tulsa International Airport, closest forecast to the destination, also expected VFR conditions to prevail with rain showers and a ceiling broken at 5,000 to 6,000 feet. The NWS Area Forecast for the route forecast expected broken clouds at 6,000 feet above mean sea level with tops to 20,000 feet with isolated rain showers. The forecast was consistent with the TAFs issued across the region. There were no amending Airmen's Meteorological Information (AIRMET) for IFR conditions. No advisories were current for any large areas of IFR conditions or thunderstorms across the region. The Senior Meteorologist's Factual Report is appended to the docket associated with this investigation. The airplane wreckage was found about 13 miles south of Huntsville, Arkansas. It was situated about 1.4 miles and 305 degrees from the intersection of Madison County Road 5320 and Arkansas Highway 23. The wreckage was fragmented in an area that was tree covered, hilly, and had rocky terrain. The first observed impact to trees was found below the crest of a hill and the wreckage debris path extended down the hill about 450 feet to the hill's base. The debris pattern exhibited a general heading of approximately 255 degrees from the initial tree impact. Trees that were struck during the impact sequence exhibited witness marks to include broken branches, uprooted bases, and toppled over trunks in the direction of the debris pattern. A postaccident on-scene investigation was conducted. All major components of the airplane were accounted for at the accident site. The left wing and right wings were fragmented during the impact sequence. Components from both wings to include their wingtip, aileron, flap, landing gear, and control cables were found along the debris field. All damage and separations were consistent with overload. Control cable separations exhibited a broomstrawed appearance consistent with overload separation. All fuel tanks were fragmented and no fuel was noted. Trees and ground areas exhibited discoloring and charring consistent with post impact ground fires. The empennage was found fragmented along the debris path. The largest section consisted of sections of the horizontal stabilator, vertical stabilizer, and the lower portion of the rudder. The left side of the stabilator and outboard portion of the right side were separated and were found along the debris path. Both stabilator control cable attach fittings were noted. One cable had separated from the swaged ball on the end of the cable and the other cable had a broomstrawed separation. Both rudder cables were secure to the rudder bellcrank and continuous to the forward fuselage area where both had broomstrawed separations. The stabilator hinge and stop bolts were in place and secure. The balance tube was in place with weights secure. The rudder bellcrank was partially separated from the rudder. The lower hinge bolt and stop bolts were in place and secure. The pitch trim drum showed three threads upper extension, which would have been consistent with a trim tab position of about two degrees of the available five degrees nose down trim. The fuselage was fragmented by multiple impacts with trees and terrain. Airplane fuselage parts and contents to include seats, instrument panels, luggage, window and door openings, and control cables were found along the debris path. The instrument panel's instruments were fragmented. The airspeed indicator's face was the only remaining instrument in the panel and its needle was resting near 200 knots. The engine was separated from its engine mount and the engine was found near the bottom of the hill by the end of the debris path. The propeller and the rear-mounted accessories were separated from the engine. Both magnetos were found in the debris path. One magneto exhibited spark when its impulse coupling was rotated by hand. The other magneto did not produce spark when rotated by hand and disassembly revealed a separation in the distributor gear. That gear separation was consistent with impact damage. The engine crankshaft was rotated using a pry-bar and the crankshaft's continuity was verified. The camshaft gear was also rotated by pry-bar and movement of some of its valves was observed. Impact damage to some push rods precluded full camshaft rotation. Portions of the propeller hub and its two retained blades were bur