Primary finding
Probable cause
The pilot's inadvertent visual flight into instrument meteorological conditions, which had not been forecast at the time of departure, and which resulted in a loss of control due to spatial disorientation.
Investigator assessment
Analysis narrative
The pilot and passenger were on a multi-leg cross-country flight returning to their home airport in Colorado from Mount Vernon, Ohio. The airplane, which was not certified for instrument flight rules (IFR) flight, departed on the cross-country flight about 0640 eastern daylight time and made several planned stops enroute. While at one of the planned stops, the passenger made the first of several text messages to the Oberlin, Kansas, airport manager about 0840 central daylight time (CDT) stating that the airport was their planned destination for the day. Additional messages were sent throughout the day pushing back their arrival time, with one message sent about 1601 CDT stating that the weather was looking too low at the airport and they were landing in Phillipsburg, Kansas. The airplane diverted to Phillipsburg and landed about 1615. While on the ground, the pilot made several telephone calls to both the airport manager in Oberlin, Kansas, and a family friend in Colby, Kansas, to inquire about the weather enroute and possible alternate destinations. The Oberlin airport manager informed the pilot that the weather included low ceilings and visibility, and he did not know when the weather would improve. The family friend in Colby reported that he assumed the pilot and passenger would overnight in Colby based on the telephone conversion he had with the pilot. The airplane departed about 1710 for their diverted destination of Colby, Kansas. Six minutes after departure, the passenger sent a final text message to the Oberlin airport manager stating that they were “going to try and go south to get out of this stuff.” Air traffic control (ATC) radar data beginning about 1746 showed the airplane made several climbing turns before the data ended about 1748, when the airplane started a right descending bank. The airplane subsequently impacted terrain in a 90° right bank and about a 40° nose-down attitude. Distribution of the wreckage and damage signatures observed during the postaccident examination were indicative of loss of control due to inadvertent flight into instrument meteorological conditions. Postaccident examination revealed no evidence of mechanical malfunctions or failures with the airplane that would have precluded normal operation. The airplane was equipped with the required visual flight rules (VFR) flight instruments, as well as a turn indicator and a vertical speed indicator. The closest weather station to the accident site was Oberlin, Kansas, which had an automatic weather observation system. Its precipitation discriminator was out of service, resulting in the system being unable to report precipitation type at the time of the accident. However, it did report low instrument flight rules (LIFR) conditions due to overcast clouds at 300 ft above ground level (agl). The temperature and dew point were both 17° C, indicating 100% relative humidity, suggesting that the visibility was likely also obscured due to fog at the time of the accident. Other surrounding stations reported marginal ceilings. None of the available weather forecasts and observation products on ForeFlight at the time of departure indicated IFR conditions enroute. Surface observations showed VFR to marginal VFR (MVFR) at the departure and destination airports, with MVFR ceilings forecast enroute by the National Weather Service (NWS) Graphic Forecast for Aviation (GFA) Aviation Cloud Forecast. The only weather product that depicted IFR to LIFR conditions was the GFA Cloud & Visibility, which was not available on ForeFlight. The forecast for 1700 showed ceilings of 1,000 ft agl to less than 500 ft agl around the accident site. However, this would have been unknown to the pilot as it is not published on ForeFlight. The NWS high resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) numerical model sounding over the accident site depicted MVFR clouds and a high probability of reduced visibility at the time of the accident. The sounding estimated the cloud tops for the low clouds observed by satellite as about 6,500 ft mean sea level (msl). Additionally, private weather stations recorded a drop in solar radiation along the route of flight that suggests an area of unexpected fog around the accident site. A drilling rig crew about half a mile from the accident site reported being unable to see the top of their derrick at the time of the accident. Based on the evidence and the reported conservative nature of the pilot, he likely departed without knowledge of the weather conditions over the accident site. While enroute, the weather likely deteriorated suddenly as the airplane entered the unexpected area of dense fog. Radar data then shows the pilot attempted to climb and perform a 180° turn to exit the area of presumed dense fog. The highest altitude reached during the 180° turn according to radar data was 4,625 ft msl at 1748:25, with the estimated cloud tops at 6,500 ft msl, before the airplane entered a descending right spiral. Loss of external visual references during VFR flight presents a high risk of spatial disorientation and loss of control. Several risk factors for spatial disorientation were or may have been present in this accident: the airplane, which was not equipped for IFR flight; the pilot’s unknown IFR currency; and the weather conditions, which included dense fog. Based on these factors, as well as the orientation and fragmentation of the wreckage consistent with a high-energy impact, the pilot likely experienced spatial disorientation after entering instrument meteorological conditions and subsequently lost control of the airplane.
Source record
Factual narrative
The pilot held airline transport, commercial, flight engineer, and flight instructor certificates and was rated for instrument flight in airplanes, single- and multi-engine land and gliders. He had no current FAA medical certificate. His last FAA medical examination was October 13, 2022. No evidence of the pilot’s instrument currency could be found in the pilot logbooks. The airplane was restored to flying condition on June 17, 2013, by the pilot and passenger. During the restoration, the airplane was brought as close as possible to the 1934 factory original design and equipment with the current required VFR flight instruments, as well as a turn indicator and a vertical speed indicator. The airplane was not certified for IFR flight. CommonSpirit Laboratory Services in Garden City, Kansas, performed an autopsy on the pilot’s remains. The autopsy report listed the cause of death as “massive blunt force impact.” Toxicology testing performed at the FAA Forensic Sciences Laboratory found no drugs of abuse. On June 30, 2024, about 1752 CDT, a Waco YKC airplane, N14137, sustained substantial damage when it was involved in an accident near Selden, Kansas. The pilot and passenger sustained fatal injuries. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight. The airplane departed about 0640 eastern daylight time from Knox County Airport (4I3) in Mount Vernon, Ohio. Two fuel stops were conducted enroute: the Shelby County Airport in Shelbyville, Illinois, about 0840 CDT, and the Chillicothe Municipal Airport (CHT) in Chillicothe, Missouri, about 1135. While in Shelbyville, the passenger sent the first of several text messages to the Oberlin Municipal Airport (OIN), Oberlin, Kansas, airport manager stating that OIN was their planned destination for the day. About 1348, shortly after departing from CHT, the passenger sent a text message to the OIN airport manager stating that they were unsure if they would make OIN but estimated their time of arrival about 1700. Another message was sent at 1601 stating that the weather was looking too low at OIN and they were landing in Phillipsburg, Kansas. The airplane diverted and landed at Phillipsburg Municipal Airport (PHG) in Phillipsburg, Kansas, at 1615. While on the ground, the pilot made several telephone calls to both the OIN airport manager and a family friend in Colby, Kansas, to inquire about the weather enroute and possible alternate destinations. The OIN airport manager informed the pilot that the ceiling and visibility were low at OIN, and he did not know when the weather would improve. The family friend in Colby reported that he assumed the pilot and passenger would overnight in Colby based on the telephone conversion he had with the pilot. The airplane departed PHG about 1710 for the Shalz Field Airport (CBK) in Colby, Kansas. Six minutes after departure from PHG, the passenger sent a final text message to the OIN airport manager stating that they were “going to try and go south to get out of this stuff.” ATC radar data beginning at 1746:09 showed the airplane made several climbing turns starting at an altitude of 3,025 ft msl to a maximum altitude of 4,625 ft msl over the accident site. The data then showed the airplane began a descending right bank before data ended at 1748:54. The airplane was on a heading of 075°, at 109 kts groundspeed and an altitude of 3,800 ft msl, which was about 1,050 ft agl (see figure 1). The engine monitor recorded a fuel flow increase from a steady average of 10 gph to 15 gph, with a final increase to 22 gph before the data ended. This increase started about three minutes before the end of the data. Figure 1. ATC radar data flight track. The accident site was in a relatively flat agricultural field about 0.10 nautical miles southeast of the last received ATC radar position. Impact marks and debris were consistent with the airplane impacting the terrain at a 90° right bank and about 40° nose-down attitude on a heading of 183°. The impact site consisted of two parallel ground scars 5 ft apart and 19 ft in length that continued to a ground depression containing engine debris and the lower forward fuselage. Propeller ground strike witness marks were observed about 5 ft from the first impact point. The start of the impact ground scars contained the wing tip bows from both right wings in a vertical orientation buried in the ground. The navigation light from the upper right wing tip was found next to the buried upper bow. The main debris field was separated from the impact point on a heading of about 228°consistent with a right turn and was 526 ft in length and 67 ft in width with burned vegetation and wreckage from a postaccident fire (see figure 5). Figure 5. Accident debris field extends off picture to the upper right. (Source: Aerial photograph from the Sheridan County Sheriff’s Office) Flight control continuity from the airplane flight control surfaces to the cockpit controls was confirmed for the rudder, elevator, and elevator trim. Aileron flight control continuity could not be established beyond the control yoke due to impact damage to both lower wings; however, the slave bar between the lower and upper ailerons was still attached to both lower ailerons. Both upper ailerons exhibited separation of the bar from the control surface consistent with overload failure. The propeller, forward crankshaft, and two cylinders were in the ground depression at the impact site. The rest of the radial engine was fragmented and scattered throughout the debris field. Detailed examination of the engine could not be performed due to impact damage. Both magnetos and the ignition harness were found but could not be functionally tested due to impact damage. The engine-driven and electric boost fuel pumps were found and both motors rotated freely when moved by hand. The fuel flow divider for the fuel injection system was not found. The propeller was found still attached to the forward crankshaft with the No. 2 blade separated. The No. 1 blade was still attached to the hub and had aft and rotational bending and rotational scraping on the face and back side consistent with ground impact. The No. 2 blade was separated from the hub with the blade root buried in the ground depression. The blade had s-bending with aft lengthwise curling of the tip. The blade also had numerous gouges and scraping consistent with engine rotation at ground impact. The flight instruments could not be tested due to impact damage. The master and avionics switches were found in the On position, and the magneto switch was found in the Both position. One cockpit fuel selector was found separated and in the On position. However, identification to its respective wing fuel tank could not be established due to impact damage. The elevator trim control handle was found in about the 10° nose-down position. The ForeFlight application was used to create a weather briefing for the accident airplane in an area of known weather. That weather briefing was then used as a template to compare the data that would have been available to the pilot to weather products available during the accident flight. The circuit boards of a JPI EDM-700/800, Garmin GPSMAP 496, and Appareo Stratus 3 were recovered and retained for further examination. The Garmin GPSMAP 496 was missing the memory chip, which prevented any data extraction. The JPI 700/800 engine data were successfully downloaded but were found to be configured incorrectly for date and time, and the data could not be correlated to the accident flight times. Data from the Appareo Stratus 3 were successfully downloaded but did not contain any data related to the accident flight. Previous flights from the same day were present. Multiple residents reported dense fog in the accident area about the time of the accident. A drilling rig crew, located about a half mile from the accident site, reported they were unaware